Part of
ISSN 0179-5619
This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.
Umfang: XIII, 220 S.
Preis: 48.00 €
Buchdetails
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are weather systems that substantially modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. As they can amplify forecast errors and project them onto the Rossby wave pattern, they are of high relevance for numerical weather prediction. This work elaborates on two aspects of WCBs in the context of ensemble forecasts: (1) sensitivities of WCBs to the representation of initial condition and model uncertainties, and (2) the role of WCBs for forecast error growth.
Umfang: XIII, 214 S.
Preis: 46.00 €
Buchdetails
Präzise Warnungen vor den Begleiterscheinungen von Gewittern sind für Präventionsmaßnahmen unerlässlich. Die dynamische Entwicklung von Gewitterzellen führt oft zu einer großen Diskrepanz zwischen den Echtzeit-Vorhersagen der Wetterdienste und den beobachteten Wetterbedingungen. Daten eines Zellverfolgungsalgorithmus werden mit Modellanalysen kombiniert, um den Lebenszyklus von Gewittern in Deutschland zu analysieren und Verfahren für die Echtzeit-Vorhersage zu entwickeln und zu evaluieren.
Precise warnings of the accompanying effects of thunderstorms are essential for preventive measures. The dynamic development of thunderstorm cells often leads to a large discrepancy between the real-time forecasts (nowcasts) of weather services and the observed weather conditions. Data from a cell tracking algorithm are combined with model analyses to investigate the life cycle of thunderstorms in Germany and to develop and evaluate procedures useful for thunderstorm nowcasting.
Umfang: VI, 398 S.
Preis: 56.00 €
Buchdetails
The impact of land-surface properties like vegetation, soil type, soil moisture, and the orography on the atmosphere is manifold. These features determine the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer, convective conditions, cloud evolution and precipitation. The impact of model grid spacing and land-surface resolution on convective precipitation over heterogeneous surfaces is investigated using ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) simulations within the framework of the HD(CP)2 project.
Umfang: VI, 171 S.
Preis: 43.00 €
Buchdetails
In this work, the climate signal of temperature and precipitation extremes, namely hot and dry extremes in summer and cold and wet extremes in winter, was analysed for the near future (2021-2050). The analysis is based on an ensemble of 12 members at 7km horizontal resolution, generated with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM.
Umfang: VII, 172 S.
Preis: €43.00 | £40.00 | $76.00
Buchdetails
Hinsichtlich der Klimaerwärmung kommt der Quantifizierung der Wärmebelastung eine bedeutende Rolle zu. Deshalb werden die Anzahl, Andauer und Stärke von Wärmebelastungen für Deutschland anhand eines Ensembles regionaler Klimasimulationen untersucht; dabei werden auch die Zusammenhänge mit Wetterlagen für vergangene und zukünftige Dekaden dargestellt. Auf lokaler Ebene werden die urbanen Effekte von Karlsruhe und Freiburg auf Wärmebelastungen mittels hoch aufgelöster Modellierung analysiert.
With regard to global warming, the quantification of heat stress plays an essential role. Therefore, the number, duration and intensity of heat stress in Germany will be studied using an ensemble of regional climate simulations. This includes the relationships with weather types for past and future decades. At the local scale, the urban effects of Karlsruhe and Freiburg on heat stress are analysed using high-resolution modelling.
Umfang: XIII, 330 S.
Preis: €54.00 | £50.00 | $95.00
Buchdetails
ICON-ART wird um die Beschreibung der optischen Eigenschaften von Vulkanasche erweitert. Dies ermöglicht die Untersuchung der Aerosol-Strahlungswechselwirkungen auf die Prozesse der synoptischen Skala. Zudem wird ein Lidar-Vorwärtsoperator implementiert, der die direkte Simulation der abgeschwächte Rückstreuung, unter berücksichtigung der Partikelform durch T-Matrix Rechnungen, erlaubt. Simulationen des Eyjafjallajökull Ausbruchs 2010 verdeutlichen die Bedeutung dieser Erweiterungen.
ICON-ART is extended by the description of the optical properties of volcanic ash. This allows the study of aerosol-radiation interactions of ash on the processes of the synoptic scale. In addition, a lidar forward operator is implemented, which allows the direct simulation of the attenuated backscatter, taking into account the particle shape by T-matrix calculations. Simulations of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption 2010 demonstrate the importance of these extensions.
Umfang: V, 194 S.
Preis: €44.00 | £40.00 | $77.00
Buchdetails
Improving the understanding and representation of heavy precipitation is crucial to prevent its hazards. A powerful means to reduce errors is to assimilate high-resolution humidity GPS observations. Here, novel experiments employing sub-hourly atmospheric GPS, in-situ observations and nudging are used to study the impact of moisture corrections on convection. This work adds new explanations on the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to moisture changes and on the added value of nudging GPS.
Umfang: VI, 237 S.
Preis: €49.00 | £45.00 | $86.00
Buchdetails
Two aspects of anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere are investigated using means of numerical weather prediction. A case study is conducted to estimate the impact of such artificial clouds on the incoming solar radiation at the Earth's surface with special regard to photovoltaic power production. Furthermore, simulations are performed to assess the efficacy of injecting particles into the Arctic troposphere with the aim of modifying cirrus clouds for counteracting global warming.
Umfang: XI, 249 S.
Preis: €48.00 | £44.00 | $84.00
Buchdetails
In dieser Arbeit wird ein neuer Ansatz für ein Hagelschadenmodell zur Quantifizierung des Hagelrisikos für Gebäudeschäden mit hohen Wiederkehrperioden vorgestellt. Basierend auf Analysen von 3D Radardaten im Zeitraum von 2005 bis 2015 entsteht ein stochastisches Zugbahnenmodell zur Gefährdungsmodellierung. Eine ausführliche Vulnerabilitätsanalyse verbindet die Gefährdung durch Hagelzüge und die Vulnerabilität von Gebäuden gegenüber Hagel zum Hagelrisiko.
This work presents a new approach for a hail loss model to quantify the hail risk on residual buildings for high return periods. Based on the analysis of 3D radar data from 2005 to 2015 a stochastic hail track model is developed to sample a random number of stochastic hail tracks. A detailed vulnerability analysis combines the hazard from the hail tracks and the vulnerability of buildings towards hail and leads to the hail risk for a certain portfolio.
Umfang: V, 263 S.
Preis: €47.00 | £43.00 | $83.00
Buchdetails
